Women's Team Finals - American Success

They did it! The USA Women's gymnastics team earned the gold medal today by over five points. Twelve nearly flawless performances clinched the gold for the exceptionally young team including literally the most beautiful vault I've ever seen. To watch the women hit routine after routine was incredibly satisfying. The Fierce Five were as fierce as ever.

Why is the US Succeeding? I personally like to think that it's our "melting pot" and "best of both worlds" structures that provide everything and the kitchen sink to the American athletes. The Women's US Olympic Gymnastics Team is coached by individuals from each of the top 4 gymnastics nations, if you consider the old USSR & Russia one and the same. Rather than having a distinct weakness like some other teams, the varied coaching styles present different strengths amongst Americans. For instance, Aly Raisman is coached by Romanian Mihai Brestyan seemed to inherit the nation's weakness on bars but their strengths on beam and floor. Kyla Ross, Gabby Douglas and US Alternate Anna Li have all been nurtured by Chinese Coaches and seem to prevail on bars. Of course, many coaches are present within a young gymnast's career and other factors influence success besides coaching, but I thought it was worth noting that the US relies on a melting pot environment to hone a strong team.

I do think that we all need to applaud Marta Karolyi. For all the slack that we as fans give Marta, we should realize that she does have some earthly idea what she's doing. The USA's never earned lower than silver at the Olympics under her direction and today they not only earned the gold, but it was by a fairly hefty margin. At the end of the day, Marta has the majority of the control over who makes the team and on which events they compete.

But of course, the real indisputable reason for the win was the USA's performances. When competing that level of difficulty that impressively, they were nearly uncatchable. The USA stayed solid while competing some of the most difficult routines in the world. Ultimately, THAT'S why they won. I've already heard many people saying, "Well, if the Russians would have hit, they'd have the gold." Not only is that irrelevant, it's also untrue. I did a little experiment wondering if Russia had the opportunity to take the higher scores between prelims and finals for each routine, if they could beat the USA's performances today. The numbers that are crossed out are Team Finals results replaced by qualifying scores.

Vault-

Komova- 15.833

Mustafina- 15.225

Paseka - 15.3  15.533

Bars- 

Grishina - 14.7 

Komova - 15.766  15.833

Mustafina - 15.7

Beam- 

Komova - 15.033  15.266

Mustafina - 14.533  14.7

Afan - 14.833 15.066

Floor - 

Grishina - 12.466 14.066

Mustafina - 14.8

Afan - 14.333  14.833

Russian Olympic High Score Total : 181.555

USA's Actual Team Total : 183.596

The bottom line is, it doesn't matter. The USA simply out performed Russia in both Prelims and Finals. Grishina & Afan's Floor Mistakes, Paseka's step on vault, as well as Komova and Mustafina's beam struggles were all frankly irrelevant. It wouldn't have mattered. It was the USA's competition to lose and they didn't budge. 

It was an exciting event and until Grishina's floor mishaps, I wondered if the USA would falter and Russia would prevail. The pressure was on the USA's shoulders and they rose to the occasion.  

Pictures all property of ESPN.

Women's Qualifying - A Closer Look

Yesterday the women kicked off their Olympic experiences with an, all things considered, fairly uneventful day. The four top teams finished in their expected positions with the exception of Romania who seemed to have some uncharacteristic struggles. Romanian proclaimed "Future Olympic All Around Champion" Larisa Iordache was expected to be left out of the All Around due to plantar fasciitis but was thrown back in after a shitload of tape on her foot supposedly alleviated the issues. Apparently the tape didn't work its magic  as Larisa qualified 9th in the All Around and failed to qualify for any event finals. Her teammate Catalina Ponor, the 2004 Balance Beam & Floor Exercise Olympic Champion, had some issues as well, bobbling significantly on beam and balking a tumbling pass on floor, although her scores were still high enough to qualify her for the event finals on both apparatuses. China just had a really shitty day, lead by the mistakes of 2011 World All Around Bronze Medalist Yao Jinnan who fell on three of her four events. 

Japan & Canada both placed surprisingly well although Canada struggled with falls throughout the day. Regardless, they qualified the women for their first team final in Olympic History. Great Britain also seemed to rise to the pressure of competing on home turf rather than crumbling. Italy, who didn't qualify to team finals in 2011 yet placed 1st at the test event qualified to the team finals as well. 

Russia and the USA will be the two major contenders for the Gold Medal with each team lead by 3 strong all arounders. Russia seems to be closing the USA's difficulty gap with upgraded vaults. Historically this quadrennium, the USA's had an advantage on vault that Russia had the potential to overcome with their Uneven Bar scores. While each team gets stronger on every event, the winner may come down to small performance errors. 

Of course, the media portrayed the biggest story of the day as Jordyn Wieber's failure to qualify for the All Around Finals. I feel like people are making it a lot less cut and dry than it really is. It's been the rule since 1976 that a set number of gymnasts from each country are allowed into each final. (The number was 3 until 2004, now it's 2). You'd have thought that someone had murdered Jordyn Wieber with the way that people were talking. Phrases like "horrific" and "something she'll spend years coming to terms with" are the way that I hear violent attacks described. In reality, Jordyn was simply met with the same fate that many expected Aly Raisman to be faced with. People tend to forget that every member of the 2011 World's team would have qualified without the "2 per country rule" and that Gabby Douglas qualified just 1 place lower than where Wieber sits currently. Where were the cries of outrage then? I understand that Jordyn is the reigning World Champion and my heart goes out to her, but to be frank, I worry that the outrage is more about being bummed that a "favorite" is out than wanting actual "fairness" within the sport. 

People keep saying "The Olympics is supposed to be the best gymnasts in the world competing." Is it? If that were true, the IOC wouldn't have 2 Egyptian gymnasts competing rather than extra gymnasts from the USA, Russia, Romania & China. Certainly had Alicia Sacramone made the team, she'd be in Vault finals. Fifteen American Seniors scored higher than the 54.232 needed to qualify for this year's Olympic All Around Finals this season. Some of those girls didn't even qualify for the US Olympic Trials such as Amanda Jetter, Brianna Brown, Mykayla Skinner and Abigail Milliet. It's just a fact that the Olympics are NOT simply the best in the world competing. Although many of the gymnasts are the strongest, the entire field is never present for every competition as there are injuries, politics, age limits and limits on team size which prevent that.

It's not just gymnastics. A competitive swimmer recently told me on Twitter that her freestyle times were faster than numerous Olympians. Yet, she wasn't even close to qualifying for her country's team due to its dominance within the sport of swimming. If the Olympics were just for "the best of the best", the USA would have 20 female artistic gymnasts and no rhythmic gymnasts. (Yet we seem to be celebrating Julie Zetlin's inclusion by the IOC.) I suppose It's important to ask ourselves what the reaction would be if Aly were the gymnast left off the All Around roster.   

All in all, it's sure to be an interesting final. In my opinion, if the USA hits it will be difficult for Russia to catch them, but it's important to remember : This is gymnastics; anything can happen. 

Pictures property of Grace Chui (1&2), NBC Sports (3) & Sports Girls Play (4) 

My thoughts on USA's Podium Training...

Okay, so I just watched podium training, as I was at work while it was airing live. (Don't worry! I'll be able to watch everything else live!) Here are my thoughts on the American performances, as those were the only ones that I, like most of you, were able to see.

NBC Sports

Vault: 
-This whole thing was fierce. If the USA wins, this will be why. They are head and shoulders above everyone on this event. I mean, in my opinion, Paseka was put on the Russian team for an Amanar about as strong as our WEAKEST vaulter, Kyla.
-I was pleased to see that McKayla is vaulting like herself, which I anticipated. Even though she is dealing with a minor foot injury.
-I wish that there were a reason for Kyla to compete her vault that DIDN'T involve anyone else getting kicked off the lineup due to injury/whatever. That DTY is gorgeous and often stuck.

Uneven Bars: 
-NBC really bugged me with their coverage here. I suppose I should be grateful for anything but I do NOT want to see people chalking up over a Dougie release EVER.
-I honestly worry about Jo struggling on bars in TF and hitting at other points. Call me crazy, but her whole situation reminds me of Carly Patterson.
-I love how different Kyla and Gabby are on this event, and yet they're both so strong!
-To those of you freaking out, the whole point of this training is to get used to the equipment. It's not surprising that they fell some.

Beam: 
-I LOVED how quickly the women worked on this event. The second one girl was of, the next was on.
-Kyla Ross should do a press to handstand mount on beam. It could be really pretty.
-Super proud of Kyla & Gabby for not missing a fucking beat when they turned the lights off.
-WAIT! Somone's floor music is the song from the P&G mom commercial! Or is that just what they play in the background?

Floor: 
-The thought that Kyla will likely go up on FX in prelims makes me die a little bit inside. She seems like a really sweet girl, but that floor... ugh.
-Gabby's floor seemed more appropriate for the venue than I expected. Maybe it's the hot pink podium?
-Jordyn seemed less... connected than usual. Maybe it's nerves? Maybe it's because there's no crowd.
-Weird front tuck instead of front layout from Aly. I wonder if she was worried about getting it around or if that's the new plan?

Random Thoughts: 

NBC Sports

-I have to be honest, I didn't dislike the leotard, but it reminded me of a sparkly pink pot leaf.
-The pink podium looks great on camera, but does indeed clash with the Gymnova mats.
-It's really pissing me off that people feel the need to pit Jordyn & Gabby against each other saying things like "they haven't interacted at all." Jordyn doesn't interact with people on the podium really. That's just not how she rolls. It's bad enough for 12 year old girls to make up vicious rivalries, it's worse when members of the associated press do it.
-Pink is a good color on Marta.

You can watch a replay of podium training here : http://www.nbcolympics.com/video/gymnastics/gymnastics-podium-training-u-s-women.html

"The Way it Used to be"

Property of EMF

As the Olympics approach, I hear more and more people talking about "the way it used to be". From  "I miss the perfect 10" to "Artistry isn't what it used to be", it seems as if everyone surrounding the sport is upset about what Artistic Gymnastics has become.

I'm not upset. In fact, I'm pleased with the new developments in the the sport.

Yesterday evening, I was talking with a friend about gymnastics when Cathy Rigby came up. I watched her silver medal winning beam routine from the 1970 World Championships and was happily with the stylistic beauty throughout her routine. (That press handstand, OH! I love it!) But the more and more I looked at routine, the fewer skills there were and the more poses I noticed.

Just because something is pretty, doesn't make it better. Cathy (and the other Olympic caliber gymnasts of that era) were all fabulous, but the fact is, they'd all be eaten alive by today's standards. And maybe that's okay. Both sets of gymnastics live in independent spheres.

For example, As much as I respect Nadia, there's no such thing as perfection. Even in her classic bar routine, she shuffled her feet, in a landing that Tim Daggett would deem "not a stick". Seven times during the Montreal Olympics Nadia earned a so called "Perfect 10" and each every time she made at least one mistake. She'd never receive a 10 on those routines today,  and with the exception of a very few vaults, no one would even have a chance.

Property of Herald.net

There's all this ongoing talk about the sacrifices of artistry for difficulty. I don't think that's fair. Ana Porgras was named queen of the balance beam in 2010 with a tremendous amount of artistry (defined by the WAG COP as creativity in choreography, ability to express theme/music, sufficient rhythm). Nastia Liukin is our reigning Olympic All Around Champion. And like it or not, the reigning World Champion, Jordyn Wieber's floor routine is one of the most audience captivating and artistic sets I've seen. There is plenty of artistry around these days which, believe it or not, is able to coexist with difficult tumbling passes.

Change isn't necessarily a bad thing. If nothing ever changed in gymnastics, Gymnasts would still have to climb a rope in competition and the hardest skill in Aly Raisman's floor routine would be a roundoff back handspring. Is that really what you want? Difficulty and artistry can coexist, and all things considered, I think that today's gymnasts are doing a pretty good job at incorporating both. We live in a world where 9 (yes, 9!) American gymnasts can hurl themselves over a giant table, do 1.5 flips and 2.5 twists and often land flawlessly. Is that not enough of a trade off to miss out on a few "prettier" skills?

Trials Podium Training Thoughts...

Michael O'Leary 

Thoughts overall: 
-No major injuries. *Knock on wood*. This has become a "who's the best of the best" instead of who can survive the bullshit.
-I love that girls are all in National Team Leos.
-The USA is deeeeeeeeep. I'm so glad.

On individual gymnasts: (in no particular order whatsoever.)

Elizabeth Price has given me second thoughts on calling all Parkettes "skill chuckers". That Amanar is fierce as is the Double Double. She'll be a great alternate.

The videos of Sarah Finnegan weren't particularly impressive to me, but maybe that's because I've watched her routines so many times. I'm interested to see how she'll compete. She's another potentially great alternate.

Sabrina Vega's gymnastics is just so pretty. I wish we could give her Aly Raisman's consistency & difficulty.

I can't get over Rebecca Bross's feet. Still. I love her natural swing though. She did land her Patterson in training, but I'm not holding my breath for a clean dismount in competition. I STILL think that it's too much of a risk for a Team Final.

Gabrielle Douglas looks fierce as ever, but her ankle looks super taped. Was it that taped at Nationals? The slowmo Amanar is not to be missed.

Nastia looks about 0% more ready than she did at Nationals podium training. If it's the Olympic Trials and you can't do a full bar routine with out an enormous amount of spotting, I'm doubting you. (The ring leap was better, though.)

McKayla is impressing me. People were worried that she wouldn't compete at Trials but she looks as good as she did at Nationals, if not better.

Anna Li's bars are fantastic, but I can't imagine Marta taking someone who literally can only go up on one event, no matter what.

Kyla's Amanar is back and looks decent. I wonder if she'll compete it and if she does if she can compete it consistently. Bars & Beam are as solid as usual. I only put her floor on for 4 seconds to see if she had changed music. ... She hadn't.

Aly Raisman is proving herself as more and more of a lock. Honey child does not fall. You can't hate that.

USA Gymnastics

Jordyn Wieber might as well not even compete. She'll be in London unless her arm falls off... and even then she could probably pull off beam. There's honestly not much to say about her at this point. She's solid, but I'm honestly kind of bored, in a Pattersonian way.

Brenna Dowell looks sad throughout. I'm waiting for her to call the news and do an Ivana Hong like news story. You remember she has a broken hand, right? She looks like she's adding a wolf jump after her front double pike though. So that's fun.

Bridget Sloan is being spotted quite a bit on bars, and USAG didn't post a full routine from her. But then again, it was similar in at Nationals, and she performed satisfactorily there.

USAG only posted Alicia Sacramone's beam which looked clean, but I'm more interested in her Vault.  I can't see a FTY as her second vault being a strong enough case for her.

Kennedy Baker wasn't in podium training today, so that was kind of a bummer. She arrived in San Jose late Tuesday evening.

Aly Raisman & McKayla Maroney 2012 UB Olympic Champions?!

In the past 24 hours, I've read the following things from gymnastics fans or bloggers: 
-"Aly is great on bars and beam!"
-"[Kyla's] strongest events : Floor and Vault."
-"Maroney should be great on bars."
-A tweeter putting Nastia in her Olympic floor lineup

I'm starting to get frustrated, friends. So, instead of screaming and banging my head against the wall, I've decided I'll attempt to help clear up whatever confusion is going on.

Some of the following post is my opinion, but let's talk facts for a second. Aly is NOT great on bars, Kyla is NOT strongest on floor and Maroney will NOT be great on bars. Those are just facts! The US is looking for the 3 highest scorers on each event. I'm sharing with you the highest scores on each event for each Trials qualifiers, although that doesn't take consistency into account.

VAULT- 
To be honest, competing on vault for the US in team finals isn't much of an option unless you've got an Amanar or a Rudi.

Girls whose vaults are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Maroney, Wieber & Raisman.

Girls whose vaults MAY be team finals worthy: Douglas, Price, Ross & Sacramone.

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers.
1. Maroney - 16.15  (Nationals Day 1)
2T. Wieber - 16.1 (American Cup)
2T. Raisman - 16.1 (American Cup)
4. Douglas - 15.866 (American Cup)
5. Price - 15.8 (Nationals Day 1)
6. Ross - 15.55 (Jesolo)
7. Sacramone - 15.5 (Nationals Day 2)
8. Finnegan - 15.0 (Nationals Day 1)
9. Baker - 14.8 (Nationals Day 2)
10. Dowell - 14.7 (Nationals Day 2)
11. Vega - 14.5 (Nationals Day 2)
12. Sloan - 14.15 (Nationals Day 2)
Liukin, Li, Bross no longer compete Vault.

BARS- 
Bars is trickier, because fewer of the team "locks" are super strong on bars.


Girls whose bars are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Dougals, Li, Ross, Bross & Sloan.

Girls whose bars MAY be team finals worthy: Wieber, Price & Liukin (if Nastia can show what people are expecting her to). 

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers. 

1. Douglas - 15.85 (Nationals Day 2)
2. Li - 15.55 (Nationals Day 2)
3. Ross - 15.5 (Nationals Day 1)
4. Bross - 15.3 (US Classic)
5. Sloan - 15.1(Nationals Day 1)
6. Wieber - 15.05 (Nationals Day 1)
7. Price - 14.95 (Nationals Day 1)
8. Baker - 14.85 (Nationals Day 1)
9. Dowell - 14.6 (Jesolo)
10. Raisman - 14.45 (Jesolo)
11. Vega - 14.4 (Nationals Day 2)
12. Finnegan - 14.15 (Jesolo)
13. Maroney - 13.95 (Jesolo)
14. Liukin - 13.65 (Nationals Day 2)
Sacramone does not compete this event.

BEAM 
The US is looking stronger and stronger on beam and should have plenty of coverage on that event, regardless of who is on the team.

Girls whose beam sets are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Ross, Raisman & Finnegan.

Girls whose beam sets MAY be team finals worthy: Wieber (her high is MUCH higher than her average), Sacramone, Liukin.

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers. 

1. Wieber -  15.7 (Pac Rim AA)

2. Ross - 15.5 (Jesolo)

3. Raisman - 15.45 (Nationals Day 2) 

4. Finnegan - 15.35 (Nationals Day 1) 

5. Sacramone - 15.2 (Nationals Day 1) 

6T. Liukin - 15.1 (Nationals Day 1)

6T. Douglas - 15.1 (American Cup)

8. Maroney - 14.55 (Nationals Day 1)

9. Vega - 14.4 (Nationals Day 2) 

10. Baker - 14.3 (US Classic) 

11. Price - 14.3 (Nationals Day 1) 

12. Bross - 14.15 (Jesolo) 

13. Li - 13.9 (US Classic) 

14. Dowell - 13.9 (Nationals Day 2) 

15. Sloan - 13.85 (Nationals Day 2)

FLOOR

Girls whose floor routines are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Raisman, Douglas, Wieber & Finnegan.

Girls whose floor routines MAY be team finals worthy: Vega & Price. 

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers. 

1. Raisman - 15.8 (Nationals Day 2)
2. Douglas - 15.3 (Nationals Day 2)
3. Wieber - 15.25 (Nationals Day 1)
4. Finnegan - 15.2 (US Classic)
5. Vega - 14.85 (US Classic)
6. Price -14.8 (Nationals Day 2)
7T. Ross - 14.6 (Nationals Day 2)
7T. Maroney - 14.6 (Nationals Day 1)
9. Baker - 14.4 (Nationals Day 1)
10. Dowell - 14.35 (Nationals Day 2)
11. Sloan - 13.9 (Nationals Day 2)
Li, Bross & Liukin do NOT compete Floor anymore.

So dearest fellow fans, go back and look what you've written and then look at the facts. Are you making sense? 

Want to feel 100 years old?

Back Row : Alicia Sacramone, Geralen Stack-Eaton, Nastia Liukin, Shayla Worley, Darling Hill, Bridget Sloan, Natasha Kelley, Amber Trani, Rebecca Clark

Middle-ish Row : Corrie Lothrop, Shawn Johnson, Sam Peszek, Sarah DeMeo, Olivia Courtney, Jana Bieger, Ivana Hong, Chelsea Davis

Front Row : Jordyn Wieber, Ashley Stott, Mattie Larson, Sami Shapiro, Rheagan Courville, Cassie Whitcomb, Rebecca Bross

These girls made up the US National Team in 2007 (plus Chellsie Memmel). Their names link to a routine from their most recent season.

Of these 24 National Team Members from 2007, 5 of them are still Elite competitors (and in fact, all in headed to Trials), 6 are retired and 13 were on college rosters this past season. I just found this a while back and thought I'd share! :)

I found this picture on Tumblr a while back, and lost my link, so let me know if it's your pic...

Let's talk about ex(ecution), baby.

USA Gymnastics

Quick! Who do you think are the girls with the highest execution in the USA? I assumed that the "Chosen 4" would rank highly and then I thought that with only execution counting that Sarah Finnegan and Sabrina Vega would squeak into the top 5 or so. In fact, I thought that Sarah Finnegan would become a virtual lock for the team disregarding difficulty. I thought she had a good chance to place higher than Douglas. Well, I was wrong.

The Top 12 in execution only over the 2 days of competition were: (parentheses indicate place w/ D & E scores counting)

USA Gymnastics

1. Kyla Ross (4th)
2. Jordyn Wieber (1st)
3. Gabby Douglas (2nd)
4. Aly Raisman (3rd)
5. Elizabeth Price (5th)
6. McKayla Maroney (N/A)*
7. Sarah Finnegan (6th)
8. Sabrina Vega (7th Tie)
9. Brenna Dowell (9th)
10. Kennedy Baker (7th Tie)
11T. Bridget Sloan (10th)
11T.  Abigail Milliet (11th)

*I multiplied Maroney's day 1 E scores by 2 so we could see where she fits.

Places 13-18 fall in the same order that they did in competition.

Frankly, I was surprised. I started to question myself and other gymnastics fans. We love Sabrina Vega, we love Sarah Finnegan, We Well, I, love Kennedy Baker. We say that it's because they have clean gymnastics, but we're lying to ourselves. It's because they have pretty gymnastics. There's nothing wrong with liking gymnastics because it's pretty, we just need to be honest with ourselves about what's going on. It's worth mentioning that these girls fell, but even if they hadn't they wouldn't have been the leaders in execution. It's a myth that these girls would be the strongest if their difficulties were higher, as they're in the same positions or even lower. Pretty doesn't necessarily equal well executed, as much as sometimes I wish it did.

Inside Gymnastics

Other surprises included Raisman placing 12th amongst vaulters. (Maroney, not surprisingly, placed 1st), Jordyn Wieber placing higher than Anna Li on bars and Gabby placing 3rd on floor. You may not like her music, but you can't argue that she performs it well.

So difficulty aside, who would I name to my team? (Execution based ranks are in parentheses)

VT: Wieber (3), Ross (2), Maroney (1)
UB: Wieber (3), Ross (2), Douglas (1)
BB: Wieber (4), Raisman (3), Ross (1)
FX: Douglas (3), Raisman (2), Wieber (1)
Alt: Price, Sacramone, Finnegan

Who takes the 5th Spot? (Based on season averages)

It's arguable, but I personally believe that 4 of the American gymnasts have a 75% or greater shot of making the team. The three semi locks are Jordyn Wieber, Aly Raisman and Gabby Douglas. I personally believe that Kyla Ross will take the fourth spot. So that leaves the every popular question: Who takes the fifth spot?

To answer that question, I found the season averages on each event from everyone headed to Trials. To be fair, season averages may not be the best judge of who will perform the best, but I figured it would be a decent baseline. Falls ARE included in the average, so this is not an average of only hit routines. They're rounded to the hundredth's place.

The cool thing about this 4 person team is that if need be, these 4 girls could fill the 3 up, 3 count quota on each event. Here's how I'd do it.

VT : Wieber (15.85), Raisman (15.58), Douglas (15.24)
UB : Douglas (15.55), Ross (15.28), Wieber (14.85)
BB :  Ross (15.1), Raisman (15.03), Wieber (14.85)
FX : Raisman (15.34), Wieber (15.08), Douglas (14.97)

So to figure out which gymnast would fill the fifth spot, I figured out who would add the largest advantage by adding their routines instead of the lowest scoring routine(s) in the lineup above.

To my surprise, the girl who would add the largest advantage was McKayla Maroney who would increase the team average .84 if she vaulted instead of Douglas. Marta's openly said that she doesn't want to take a girl who can only help on one event, but McKayla's average is by far the most helpful to team USA.

Second is Alicia Sacramone whose average is higher than both Douglas on Vault and surprisingly, Jordyn Wieber on beam. (Jordyn's Pac Rim EF fall IS factored into this average though.) Her advantage is .53.

Elizabeth Price's was the third most helpful with her vault average adding .45 to the team total.

I was surprised that my most recent pick for #5, Sarah Finnegan's beam routine was the only helpful one (w/ a .21 advantage) and that her floor average wasn't higher than Raisman's, Douglas's or Wieber's.  Her individual floor scores have been higher than some of Gabby's though.

Bridget Sloan, Anna Li and Rebecca Bross each could help the team solely on bars, but because they've each had their share of mistakes their advantages each only average out to less than .2.

Kennedy, Sabrina, Nastia and Brenna don't have higher averages on any event than the already chosen four.

Obviously, season averages are not the end all be all of a selection process, but they do take into account both consistency and scoring potential. Who knows, Nastia, Becca or Anna could blow all of these girls out of the water at Trials, or perhaps one of my "Chosen Four" could seem unprepared for Olympic aspirations. *Knock on wood*. But, I thought it was a start to see who will take what I view as the last spot on the team.

**Pictures are all property of the USOC

Vaults I loved and hated from Nationals

So I told everyone a while back that I'd be analyzing specific routined from Nationals. I've kinda been dragging my feet on this one, but here are my 3 favorite and least favorite Vaults...

FAVORITES 

1. McKayla Maroney's Mustafina (Day 1)

(Starts at 1:20)

Score: 15.7 (6.1 D, 9.6 E) 

Place: 1st After Day 1 

What I loved: Her form in the air is phenomenal. She lands it beautifully and has an amazing block. 

What I didn't: She has a tiny hop, so I guess that can be improved upon.

2. Simone Biles Amanar (Day 2)

Score: 16.0 (6.5 D, 9.5 E)
Place: 1st
What I loved: She gets phenomenal height and only takes a tiny hop.
What I didn't: Her feet are kinda funky in the air. It could be cleaner.



3. Jordyn Wieber's Amanar (Day 2) 

Score: 15.9 (6.5 D, 9.4 E) 

Place: 2nd of all Sr Vault Scores

What I loved: Travels far with it and twists sufficiently. 

What I didn't: Leg separation on block, step forward. 

LEAST FAVORITES

1. Ohashi's Double (Day 2)

Score: 13.8 (5.8 D, 8.0 E) 

Place: 11th after 2 days

What I loved: Her feet look nice in the air and she manages to somehow stand it up. 

What I didn't: This vault is IDENTICAL to Rebecca Bross's in 2011 that blew out her knee. After Katelyn missed this vault in training, she did it on day 2 terribly. 

2. Merideth's Sylvia's FTY (Day 1) 

Score: 11.8 (5.0 D, 6.8 E)

Place: 23rd 

What I loved: Again, she's got nice toes. 

What I didn't: She has this GIANT pike that she's doing (and she did on Day 2 as well) and obviously, how underrotated she seems is terrible and dangerous. 

3. Jordyn Wieber's Amanar (Day 1) 

Score: 15.65 (6.5 D, 9.15 E)

Place: 3rd

What I loved: Good form until landing

What I didn't: SCARRRRYYYYY KNEEEES!!!! AGHGHGHGHHHH!!!! 

Quick Nationals Wrap Up

Annnnd, it's over. Dozens of athletes have competed, National Champions have been named and 15 girls have been sent to Trials.

To be brief, here were my thoughts on the seniors:

To be not as brief, I would say that the biggest surprise amongst the competitors was most likely Gabby, who only missed the title by .2. That's pretty impressive for someone who "ended her career" at last year's Nationals. Had she not fallen on beam, she undoubtedly would have won.

The top 4 were in the order I predicted, but I was surprised at how close they came. I'm keeping my team the same as I had them after Classics (they're the girls circled in Purple), with the same alternates I picked then as well (underlined in Yellow). I'd like to see Alicia & Bridget make the team, but I'm not sure how feasible that really is.

I'm doubting the chances of Brenna Dowell at this point because she still has a broken hand. To be honest, I feel like all that making trials really means for her is that she'll spend two more weeks training and competing with an injury.

Anna Li's a fabulous gymnast but I personally feel like she performed more successfully in NCAA... but this is gymnastics. Anything can happen.

And I'm pretty sure I've said my peace on Nastia, but I'll leave you with this...

I'll post later with my thoughts on specific routines/juniors.

5 Feasible US Olympic Teams

In my mind, there are 15 girls who have any kind of shot of being on this 8 person Olympic Squad.

In my opinion, Jordyn Wieber, Aly Raisman & Gabrielle Douglas have the greatest shot  based on past results. Sarah Finnegan, McKayla Maroney and Kyla Ross all have legitimate shots at making the team, but could perhaps be left off completely. Meanwhile veterans Nastia Liukin, Becca Bross, Anna Li and Alicia Sacramone who have each had issues with injuries and consistency, may be saved by their high start values. Shawn Johnson could also fall in this category but without seeing routines this year, I'm not sure. Personally, I think that this will more than likely be a team of first time Olympians.

And then we have the girls most likely to be alternates, but who are unlikely to make the team. The "Corrie Lothrops" of 2012. Kennedy Baker, Elizabeth Price, Sabrina Vega and Brandie Jay fall here. (And possibly Brenna Dowell, if she can come back from her hand injury.) And I think they're all wonderful. May beautiful college careers be ahead of you.


In my personal opinion, these are the five most feasible teams:


1. The Post-Pac Rims

Property of AP

Jordyn Wieber (AA)
Aly Raisman (BB, FX)
Gabby Douglas (UB, FX)
Kyla Ross (VT, UB, BB)
McKayla Maroney (VT)
Alternates:  Sarah Finnegan, Sabrina Vega, Shawn Johnson

This was the team that I posted about a while back. Although I understand how many people believe that Maroney doesn't fit into the team that well, I do feel really strongly that she deserves to defend her title. I also just noticed, this team has FIVE AMANARS! WOW!

Stefan Wurzer

2. The Post-Classics
Jordyn Wieber (AA)
Aly Raisman (VT, BB, FX)
Gabby Douglas (UB)
Kyla Ross (VT, UB)
Sarah Finnegan (BB, FX)
Alternates: McKayla Maroney, Kennedy Baker, Elizabeth Price

After watching the competition on Saturday, this is my team for the moment. It gives lots of options as Gabby could potentially go up on Vault, Beam or Floor, Kyla could go up Beam and Sarah could (not ideally) go up on bars. It's a team that plans for an injury and it's a team with pretty, solid gymnastics. And don't hate on my alternates or I will cut you.

Harry Howe

3. The Reader's Choice 
Jordyn Wieber (AA)
Aly Raisman (VT, BB, FX)
McKayla Maroney (VT)
Nastia Liukin (UB)
Kyla Ross (UB, BB, FX)
Alternates: Shawn Johnson, Sabrina Vega, Gabrielle Douglas

This particular team was named 5 times in the prediction contest back in December, and actually is a pretty strong team when you think about it. The alternates for the team were the most popular alternates not named to the team. I could perhaps see this team being named if Gabby ends up underperforming and Nastia over performs. It does leave a floor hole though and I don't like the idea of have to put Kyla or Maroney up on floor.

Associated Press

4. The Gabby-less
Jordyn Wieber (AA)
Aly Raisman (VT, BB, FX)
Nastia Liukin OR Rebecca Bross (UB)
Kyla Ross (VT, UB)
Sarah Finnegan (BB, FX)
Alternates: Sabrina Vega, Elizabeth Price, Kennedy Baker

Yes, I know that the last one didn't have Gabby in it, but here's how I would do it. The Bars specialist could go to either Nastia or Becca, depending on who performs more impressively (and if Nastia legitimately gets her bars back). This would be my team if Gabrielle Douglas broke her leg or if she falls apart as time goes on. I don't think she will... but here's my plan in case it does.


5. The Aly-less

Property of GK

Jordyn Wieber (AA)
Gabby Douglas (UB, FX)
Kyla Ross (VT, UB, BB)
Sarah Finneagn (BB, FX)
McKayla Maroney (VT)
Alternates: Sabrina Vega, Elizabeth Price, Kennedy Baker

Along the same lines of the last team, this is who I would put on the team if Aly ended up injured, inconsistent or Canadian. It's nice that we're in a year where one routine could make or break (pun not intended) your team. Sure, Aly's floor scores are much better than Gabby's, but it wouldn't be catastrophic to have Gabby's in the line up.

Associated Press

(And a bonus team...)
6. The Jordyn-less
Aly Raisman (VT, BB, FX)
Gabby Douglas (VT, UB, FX)
Kyla Ross (VT, UB, BB)
Sarah Finnegan (BB, FX)
Nastia Liukin OR Rebecca Bross (UB)
Alternates: Sabrina Vega, McKayla Maroney, Elizabeth Price

I know, I know. I can hear you screaming from here. A team without Jordyn wouldn't be a good thing at all. However, in this day and age, anything can happen. Here's what I'd do in the off chance that Jordyn fell apart. (I don't mean emotionally like I did with Gabby. I mean what I'd do if her limbs literally started falling off.)

I don't see these as the only possibly teams, but in my opinion they are the most likely of the bunch. Who would be your team?

BREAKING NEWS : Senior Scratch List

I just got a list of girls who will NOT be competing all 4 events tonight. Here are the events that they WILL be competing.

Of these girls, Magee is the only one who we're sure needs to qualify to Championships.

Rebecca Bross - UB, BB
Gabrielle Douglas - UB, BB, FX
Sarah Finnegan - UB, BB, FX
Nastia Liukin - BB
Casey Jo Magee - VT, UB, BB
McKayla Maroney - VT, BB
Chellsie Memmel - BB
Jordyn Wieber - UB, BB

I don't know why this is the case, and I suppose that it's subject to change. I'm just relaying the info I was given.

My random thoughts after seeing Classics Training Coverage

I'm bored to death with this Shaposh half combo.

I thought that Kim Zmeskal rechoreographed new routines for her girls every year. WHY DOES BAILIE KEY STILL HAVE THAT MUSIC?!?!?!

Polina Shchennikova will make the national team this year if she doesn't headcase.

McKenzie Wofford is fierce as hell. Everyone better respect her for that.

I want Nastia Liukin to do well. Her beam is pretty but I'm VERY disappointed that she won't be competing bars.

Kyla Ross could earn her spot with her bars. I'm impressed with this tumbling pass, but honeychild has GOT to get some less horrible music.

I would guess that the Gedderts are just planning for consistency at this point. I therefore, am not overly impressed with World Champion Wieber.

When I heard that Anna Li was getting a new floor routine that she wanted to be college like, I didn't expect it to be this artistic. YAY. Her bars are of course, phenomenal as always. I love the new skill.

Elizabeth Price reminds me of Olivia Courtney in '08. Hopefully Marta will send her to a meet post Olympics. Could she win Classics in 2013? Possibly. She impresses me more and more each time I see her. Apparently she's got an Amanar that I have yet to find video of.


Abby Milliet's leotard makes me want to cry.

Chellsie Memmel is a beast. LOVE.

Aly Raisman's Amanar still scares the hell out of me.

Can we please find a new birth certificate for Katelyn Ohashi?

Ariana Guerra is blossoming since her move to Texas Dreams.

Amelia Hundley's going to be 5'6 by the time she turns 16.

I absolutely refuse to call this the "Secret Classic". That's creepy as hell.

All photos property of USAG

My Ideal Olympic Team

Recently, I asked the twittervese to give me a few blog ideas. One of those ideas was my hopes for the Olympic team. This isn't a prediction list, but rather, if I were choosing the team today, who I would choose.


Jordyn Wieber - This one's a given. The All Around World Champion should make the Olympic Team barring a major injury. Jordyn would be the only gymnast to compete all four events in both qualifications and team finals.  With the thought in mind that John Geddert's been pacing her since she was 12 for this event, I'd imagine that she has even more gymnastics to show that what she's already presented.

Property of USAG

Gabrielle Douglas - Obviously, I'm in love with the Gabrielle's gymnastics and she's certainly one of the best, if not the best bar worker in the US. Not only could Gabrielle contribute on bars, but her all around picture is getting stronger by the day. I'd have Gabby compete All Around in prelims (fighting with Ross for the 2nd All Around spot) and then competing Bars and Floor in finals.

Kyla Ross - Kyla really impressed me at Pacific Rims with how much she's grown up since we first saw her with her little green hair bow in 2009. I think that Kyla could compete All Around in prelims and then everything but floor in finals. I hope that Marta appreciates her talents, although she hasn't been to Worlds.

Property of USA Today

McKayla Maroney - Part of this is because I'm bitter about Hollie Vise not making the Olympic Team, but I think it's only fair for a reigning World Champ to be able to defend her title. I'd have her compete Vault in both Prelims and Finals (obviously) and possibly bars in prelims, depending on what her set looked like. 

Aly Raisman - Did I surprise you? Yup, it's true. I'm now a Raisman fan. Raisman would be the only one to sit out Vault (her Amanar still scares me) but would compete both Beam and Floor in finals. Prelim bars would depend on who looks stronger between she and McKayla. With Aly's proven leadership skills, she'd also make a fantastic captain.

Here's how the scores came out:

Highest possible team total based on 2011-12 Scores: 185.24 (1st at 2011 Worlds by 6 points)
Lowest possible team total based on 2011-12 Scores (if LITERALLY everyone falls): 168.61(6th at 2011 Worlds)
Average team total based on 2011-12 Scores (Including falls): 179.15 (Only outscored by USA at 2011 Worlds)

Pac Rim & Jesolo Team Selection

So in the past 24 hours, the Pac Rim & Jesolo lists were posted. While some fans were surprised by who made the list, I was more surprised by who didn't.

A few who didn't make the team make perfect sense: Mackenzie Caquatto & Jessie DeZiel are away at school, while Alicia Sacramone is recovering from that awful achilles injury. Hallie Mossett is injured and Bridget Sloan & Bridgette Caquatto (now at Texas Dreams) are rumored to be.Then there are also the girls who seem to get passed over time and time again. (Amanda Jetter being the prime example here.)

Property of Greg Long

  I'm confused about a few of the "major players" who we mysteriously haven't heard from this year.

Sabrina Vega is missing in action. She may or may not have been at camp, but she isn't headed to a meet this year after performing satisfactorily at Worlds in October.

Where is Shawn Johnson? She was definitely at camp this time around yet didn't make either team. With all due respect, how am I to believe that this girl has a shot at the team, if last year's 12th Place Junior Brianna Brown was chosen before her?

If Marta is indeed "testing the waters" with the less experienced girls, then why send Raisman & Maroney to Jesolo instead of Baker & Winston. Or Wofford for that matter. (She had a 6.3 Beam SV at Classics last year and is training MAJOR upgrades on bars).

In any case, I hope that the USA does well at these two meets.

Property of Jessica Frankl

I'm thrilled for all of the girls headed out, but particularly little Bailie Key who's headed out for her first international assignment. I am also VERY excited to see that Rebecca Bross is headed back, although I worry that it could be too soon. I sincerely hope that she stays healthy.

Maybe Marta will have Jordyn just compete Vault and Beam so that Gabby Douglas can take the Pac Rim Title. (Please?!) The six girls on the team are all powerhouses and have enormous scoring potential. While bars is their collectively weakest event, I don't really see any holes on the team at all.

Any guesses on the US Jesolo Amanar Count? There are five girls on the team who have competed an Amanar before, but it's possible that there may be even more now that we're into an Olympic Year. On a team of 14 (9 seniors & 5 Juniors), I'm not really sure what the format will be, but I do know the scores will be phenomenal.

Ahhhhh... I'm starting to get giddy about how deep the USA is right now.


... ... ... Yup, I'm back.

My 11 Favorite Routines of 2011

11. Ana Sofia Gomez on Beam at the Pan American Champs Event Finals

10. Nica Hults on Beam at the US Classics 

9. Aliya Mustafina on Bars at The American Cup

8. Diana Bulimar on Floor at World Championship Qualifications

7. Kyla Ross on Beam on Day 1 of Visa Championships

6. Aly Raisman on Floor at World Championships Event Finals

5. Viktoria Komova on Bars at World Championships Qualifications 

4. Katelyn Ohashi on Beam on Day 1 of Visa Championships

3. McKayla Maroney on Vault at World Championship Team Finals

2. Jordyn Wieber on Beam on Day 2 of Visa Championships

1. Sui Lu on Beam at World Championship Team Finals

Your Questions Answered - 11/21-11/27

I've gotten a some questions this week. Here are my answers!

(PR Photos) 

Izzi B asked: "I'm confused about what it means that Chellsie's now a judge. What exactly will she be judging and how can she still compete if she's a judge?"


Chellsie is a Brevet Judge which means she can judge JO, NCAA, Elite and International competition. Kathy Kelly (VP of the Women's Program) has been asking Chellsie to take the course for a while, but Chellsie thought now would be a good time because she's recovering from her shoulder surgery. She said she spent a lot of time studying and only had a month to learn it all! Chellsie and Tabitha Yim both tested as Brevet Judges at the last development camp. Chellsie is still training, and plans to compete this season, but sees judging as something good to have as an option. 


Bridgette asked: "You posted a link to a 'day in the life' for Jordyn Weiber (sic) which indicated she already has endorsement deals but they're just not public... am I reading that right? I thought she wasn't accepting endorsements yet even though she went pro? I'm confused!"


In the first press release stating that Jordyn went pro, her mom said that they "might look into representation" after the Olympics. Apparently, Mama Wieber didn't realize that the bulk of sponsorships come before the games. Jordyn does indeed have endorsements which are rumored to include Proctor & Gamble and Kellogg's. 

(Property of John Cheng)

Anonymous asked: "I saw another blog that said Komova would be unlikely for the American Cup? Do you agree with this? I already have my tickets, and I was really hoping to see a Komova/Wieber showdown. Do you think Jordyn and Aly will for sure be there? Who else do you think will show?"


The American Cup is a World Cup event, so the Top 8 All Around gymnasts from Worlds are invited. If anyone declines the next girl down on the list will attend. My personal opinion? I don't think Komova will come. In my opinion, Mustafina only attended because she thought she had no real competition. If Wieber is there, as she's said she plans to be, Komova WILL have major competition. Last year, the lowest ranking competitor from Worlds competing WAG at the American Cup was Hannah Whelan, who placed 16th at Worlds. Anyone who placed above 16th is a good possibility.  Another possibility could include Ross being thrown in similarly to Wieber last year.


Izzi B asked: "How come McKayla doesn't preform (sic) two vaults at events like Visa Nationals? Sacramone does to show what she would do at event finals, and obviously McKayla competed in EF at worlds, so why doesn't she show two vaults too?"


McKayla did compete two vaults! She competed both of her vaults at both Championships and Classics, but NBC chose to only show her Amanar. That's how she came to be the National Vault Champion! Brandie Jay competed 2 vaults as well. 

(Property of USA Today)

A asked: "Is Aly Raisman bringing back the Amanar?" 

While I haven't heard one way or another about Aly's Amanar status, I'd guess that if she stays healthy  (knock on wood), Aly will try to bring back the Amanar. It's been said across the internet that to make this Olympic team, you either need an Amanar or a finals worthy bar set. I think that Raisman will try as hard as she can for the former. Her landings have been scary in the past, but I think that with a little bit of work she can get it rotated all the way around.

If your question wasn't answered, check back Thursday for an entire post on your question, or early next week! (An insider has answered one of your questions for Thursday!)

Do you have a question? Whether it's fact or opinion, I'll answer it! Ask me here!