Nastia's Bars : What am I missing?

3 weeks ago Nastia looked like this in training:

And then placed 18th out of 19 on bars. 

Now she looks like this:

If you're saying "she'll be ready", ask yourself why. Maybe you're psychic? Maybe you know more about gymnastics than I do. Or maybe you're trying to hold on to 2008. Personally, I don't see this happening. I hope she proves me wrong. But no one, not even little hand-broken Brenna Dowell is being spotted this much. This doesn't seem like and improvement on nationals to me. A dismount, yes, but she did the dismount in training last time around too. I don't feel like she's got the stamina to do it. What am I missing? 

Who takes the 5th Spot? (Based on season averages)

It's arguable, but I personally believe that 4 of the American gymnasts have a 75% or greater shot of making the team. The three semi locks are Jordyn Wieber, Aly Raisman and Gabby Douglas. I personally believe that Kyla Ross will take the fourth spot. So that leaves the every popular question: Who takes the fifth spot?

To answer that question, I found the season averages on each event from everyone headed to Trials. To be fair, season averages may not be the best judge of who will perform the best, but I figured it would be a decent baseline. Falls ARE included in the average, so this is not an average of only hit routines. They're rounded to the hundredth's place.

The cool thing about this 4 person team is that if need be, these 4 girls could fill the 3 up, 3 count quota on each event. Here's how I'd do it.

VT : Wieber (15.85), Raisman (15.58), Douglas (15.24)
UB : Douglas (15.55), Ross (15.28), Wieber (14.85)
BB :  Ross (15.1), Raisman (15.03), Wieber (14.85)
FX : Raisman (15.34), Wieber (15.08), Douglas (14.97)

So to figure out which gymnast would fill the fifth spot, I figured out who would add the largest advantage by adding their routines instead of the lowest scoring routine(s) in the lineup above.

To my surprise, the girl who would add the largest advantage was McKayla Maroney who would increase the team average .84 if she vaulted instead of Douglas. Marta's openly said that she doesn't want to take a girl who can only help on one event, but McKayla's average is by far the most helpful to team USA.

Second is Alicia Sacramone whose average is higher than both Douglas on Vault and surprisingly, Jordyn Wieber on beam. (Jordyn's Pac Rim EF fall IS factored into this average though.) Her advantage is .53.

Elizabeth Price's was the third most helpful with her vault average adding .45 to the team total.

I was surprised that my most recent pick for #5, Sarah Finnegan's beam routine was the only helpful one (w/ a .21 advantage) and that her floor average wasn't higher than Raisman's, Douglas's or Wieber's.  Her individual floor scores have been higher than some of Gabby's though.

Bridget Sloan, Anna Li and Rebecca Bross each could help the team solely on bars, but because they've each had their share of mistakes their advantages each only average out to less than .2.

Kennedy, Sabrina, Nastia and Brenna don't have higher averages on any event than the already chosen four.

Obviously, season averages are not the end all be all of a selection process, but they do take into account both consistency and scoring potential. Who knows, Nastia, Becca or Anna could blow all of these girls out of the water at Trials, or perhaps one of my "Chosen Four" could seem unprepared for Olympic aspirations. *Knock on wood*. But, I thought it was a start to see who will take what I view as the last spot on the team.

**Pictures are all property of the USOC

Bar routines I loved and hated from Nationals

FAVORITES

1. Gabby Douglas on Day 2

Score: 15.85 (6.6 D, 9.25 E)
Place: 1st
What I Loved: Her releases are sky high, she has such a natural swing and handled the pressure well.
What I Didn't: She seems a tiny bit too close to the bar on her Ray.


2. Anna Li on Day 2

Score: 15.55 (6.9 D, 8.65 E)

Place: 3rd

What I Loved: Those combos were CRAZY amazing and it's unique!

What I Didn't: A couple of awkward leg positions throughout.

3. McKenzie Wofford on Day 2

Score: 14.7 (6.3 D, 8.4 E) 

Place: 9th

What I Loved: Did you see that combination? Try to tell me that wasn't cool! She also stuck that dismount! I cannot WAIT to see this girl at OU! 

What I Didn't: She's got a few short handstands 

LEAST FAVORITES

1. Nastia Liukin on Day 1

Score: 13.15 (5.8 D, 7.35 E)

Place: 19th 

What I Loved: That layed out Gienger is still FIERRRRCE. 

What I Didn't: The "dismount", obviously as well as the wonky pak and weird leg separations. 

2. Jessica Wang Day 1 

Score: 9.8 (4.3 D, 5.5 E) 

Place: 22nd

What I Loved: She pulls off her Jaeger.

What I Didn't: Honey child has a really hard time with that handstand.

3. Megan Skaggs Day 2

Score: 11.45 (4.9 D, 6.55 E)

Place: 21st 

What I Loved: A fairly strong dismount.

What I Didn't: Those are some icky handstands, also, the tkachev fall.

An open letter to Nastia Liukin

Dear Nastia,

Over the past week, I've received many emails from your fans who disapprove of the many jokes I've made about you recently. What those fans have failed to realize is that I too, am a Nastia Liukin Fan.

From 2005-2008, your gymnastics seemed effortless, although you were competing some of the most difficult routines in the world. I love that you can compete a layed out Gienger although you're taller than most gymnasts out there. I love you earned 5 well deserved medals at the 2008 Olympics. And I love that you competed a phenomenally stuck vault on what was possibly the most stressful day of your life.

I personally believe that this is one of the most beautiful routines I've ever seen.

When I heard you were planning to return to the sport, to be honest, I was thrilled. Although I felt that your timing was somewhat off, I yearned to see your gorgeous lines on beam and your wonderful artistry on floor once again. After seeing you at Classics, I was thrilled about your performance and to be honest, felt bad that your news had been shoved aside as the gymnastics community addressed the Chellsie Memmel drama.

And then you arrived in St. Louis and I saw your double front half. I grew more and more excited to see you compete and began to see you as a serious contender for the Olympic Team.

I loved that things actually seemed to be coming together for you.

Here's what I DIDN'T love though: 
-I didn't love that you didn't have the professionalism to either pull out of the bar competition or compete a legitimate dismount.
-I didn't love that you told the press that you had only been training bars for about a week, while there are pictures from as far back as September with you in grips and you trained extensively at Classics.
-I didn't love that you didn't mention your "injury" to the media at Classics or Championships until you struggled in competition.

If you had a bad meet, just own up to it. It's the right thing to do.

Nastia, I've always been your fan, but you make it hard for me to root for you when it seems as if you aren't taking your "comeback" seriously.

Best wishes and good luck at Trials,
Bekah

Six Year Old Commentary Sundays: Nastia's 2008 Bars

After watching the Nastia Liukin Cup with me, my 6 year old sister, Sofia has decided she loves gymnastics. Since she's taken an interest we've been watching videos together and she's been giving quite the commentary. Here are her thoughts on Nastia Liukin's 2008 AA Bar Routine.

Sofia: I like her outfit. What's her name?
Me: Nastia Liukin
Sofia: Where's she from?
Me: She was born in Russia but she lives in Texas.
Sofia: I've never been to Texas, but there's a lot of sand there, and people play the banjo... does she play the banjo?
Me: No. I don't think so. Do you think she's good?
Sofia: Mmmm... Yeah. She's good because she lets go and then catches it and doesn't fall.
Me: Yeah?
Sofia: And she keeps her legs straight. Except at the end where she jumps off.

I'm telling you, she's better than Al.

Your Questions Answered - 11/28-12/4

(Property of  Inside Gymnastics)

Kim asked: "Does Dare Maxwell still train at Texas Dreams? I noticed her sister competes for Dynamo in Oklahoma, so I'm kinda lost on this one!"

In late 2009 Dare moved to Texas Dreams to train with Kim Zmeskal and Chris Burdette. At this time, she began boarding with Chelsea Davis (and her mother) during the week to train while coming home often to spend time with her family. After Chelsea left for college, Dare began living with the Hults family. Dare’s younger sister Teagan still lives in Oklahoma and competes for Dynamo. She's planning to compete as a Level 9 and qualified to the 2011 Level 8 Regional Championships.

Zoe asked: "What do you think of Nastia and her comeback? Do you think she has a shot? What about Johnson?"

(Property of Quinn Rooney)

I am pleased to see that 5 out of the 6 Olympians from 2008 are attempting to make the team. What do I think their shots are? I think that Nastia, if in top, or almost top form, has a better shot than Shawn does. This is for no other reason than we NEED a bar worker. We have plenty of strong beamers, but if Nastia could get into top shape she could fill the hole that the US has right now. If I had to purely guess what I think will happen? I don't think Nastia will be ready in time. She'll probably compete at Classics and then have an "injury" or maybe just announce that she's not ready. I truly hope that this ISN'T the case, I just really can't see her being in a good position the first weekend of June, when Championships begin. Johnson, if she stays healthy, could potentially make the team, but I see her more likely as an alternate, just because she doesn't really "fill in the blanks" with Jordyn and several other likely candidates on the team. 

(Property of the Reeve Family)

Vikki asked: "Do you know if Olivia Reeve who moved from Great Britain to train at Chow's will be going into level 10 or elite?"

I've been told that the plan is to try to qualify Elite. She and her dad traveled to Chow's in 2010 for what a Chow's insider tells me was essentially a "try out". She has officially moved for the long term at this point and has started school in Iowa. Her website says that she'd like to represent GB in the 2016 Olympics, so I'm not sure how far into the USAG program Olivia will go. She's also not currently training in Chow's group but with Neptali Narvaez & Amy Longwill.

If you're not familiar with Olivia Reeve, she's a 13 year old gymnast and diver from Great Britain.  

Kiyal asked: "When did Jana officially retire and what is she doing now? Same 'where is she now' question about Carly."

(Property of Jeff Sipsey)

While I don't officially remember Jana having a statement about retiring, she competed most recently at the 2009 Visa Championships. She did receive an international assignment to travel to a World Cup Competition in Croatia in November of 2009 but she did not attend. Most recently we saw her as fit as ever performing along with many former elite and college gymnasts in Evolution. 

Although Carly briefly talked about a comeback early this quad, she hasn't competed since the 2004 Olympics. She's currently in school and has made several appearances in gyms across the country. No word as to if she's given up the singing dream. 

Do you have questions of your own? Ask Me! 

Camp 11/17-11/22 - Full Attendance List

It's National Team Training Camp Time!!!

It's expected that Top Gym Assignments will be given, along with another possible December competition.It's also possible that the Olympic Test Event team will be chosen at this camp, because as Jennifer stated in the comments, Nominative entries are due December 7th. 

Here is the full list of camp attendees:

Kennedy Baker 

Simone Biles

(Property of Gym Examiner)

Rebecca Bross
Brianna Brown 

Nichelle Christopherson

Bridget Dean
Nia Dennis

Maddie Desch
Brenna Dowell

Peyton Ernst
Sarah Finnegan
Amelia Hundley
Brandie Jay

Amanda Jetter

Bailie Key

Lizzy LeDuc
Nastia Liukin 
Grace McLaughlin
Katelyn Ohashi

Elizabeth Price
Lexie Priessman
Kyla Ross
Polina Shchennikova
Mykayla Skinner

Kiana Winston

McKenzie Wofford

This list is based on conversations I've had with gymnasts/coaches & posts on twitter and other sites by gymnasts/coaches. 

My guess is that it will be Junior National Team, Some Seniors and some extra invites. 

The biggest shocks to everyone have been Amanda Jetter, who had pretty major surgery to repair her foot after complications with her Jesolo injury in Early September and Lizzy LeDuc, who was rumored to have dropped down to Level 10 after her move to Zenith.

10 things I Learned About Gymnastics from MIOBI

The 10 Things I Learned About Gymnastics from 
Make it or Break it! 

10. Gymnasts wear their National Team Warmups to practice everyday, and ALWAYS wear a leotard under their street clothes. 

9. The only way to make the Olympics is to make Worlds. No one who isn't on the world's team in the Pre-Olympic year will make the Olympic team.

8. Gymnastics Coaches spend most of their time talking about whether or not their gymnasts should have premarital sex, or whether they should have an abortion. They rarely mention skills and never mention pacing.

7. When you compete internationally, the reigning Olympic All Around Champion is required to bring you Subway sandwiches.

6. There's no such thing as age limits. Kelly Parker's 14 year old mini-me would be perfect for Worlds!

5. College Recruiters never use email or phone calls. The easiest way to recruit a gymnast is to fly to Worlds.

4. It's totally fine to leave an airport on your way to a competition, fly to a different country and meet your old coach, and get to your international assignment just in time to compete. And you'll totally get more international assignments after that.

3. The competition format for Worlds is 6 on a team, 1 up, 1 count. I'm not really sure what the other two gymnasts are for...

2. After being out for six weeks and having a significant weight change, 2 days of training will prepare you to do a clean Pak Salto, Tkachev and Double Layout.

1. The balance beam is only 12 inches wide!

Although this was not written by, or plagiarized from the wonderful Spanny Tampson, you should check out her blog as we apparently share many ideas. Also, it's a really good blog. :)

The 11 Most Awkward Gymnastics Moments of 2011

11. You know that moment when you all show up to prom and you’re wearing the same dress as 3 other girls?

(All Photos Property of USA Gymnastics)

10. Worley Misses the High Bar (@thesplitleap)

Shayla Worley was supposed to be the star of Georgia. Unfortunately, no gymnast since Kristie Phillips failed to meet expectations so severely. This one takes the cake though, as Worley fails to mount the high bar. Last time I was in a gym, even I could do that.

9. Peña’s Pan Ams Mishaps

After Peña struggled on her Handspring Double Front Vault at Worlds, most people in the gymnastics community thought one of two things: Either her struggles were a fluke or she’ll water down her vault. Nope. In both AA & EF Peña kept on falling/kind of landing and looks surprised when she does. I think she’s the only one who’s surprised at this point. Everyone is waiting for her to get severely injured; I hope she waters down before she does.

8.  Anna accepts Alicia’s Medal

This is only number 8 because Anna handled it so well. When Alicia Sacramone tore her Achilles, Marta oddly didn’t call her in as a bar worker. She DID however, call her in to accept Alicia’s Medal on the podium. If it would have been me, I’d have punched a bitch. Too bad Anna Li seems like the nicest, most gracious person on earth.

7. Wieber wins SCAM and Afan wins Floor at Worlds (Omelianchik100)

While both Wieber and Afansayeva had great performances in their respective competitions, something’s just plain uncomfortable about a gymnast winning a competition that she didn’t qualify for in the first place. No rules were broken, but the whole situation is a little awkward.

6. Nastia’s Inside Gymnastics Interview

While I'm sure that Nastia meant well, telling the press that she gave the girls a “pep talk” that brought the “spark back in their eyes” was really uncomfortable, even if it was true. Many fans also argued that it was INCREDIBLY bad timing for her to officially announce her comeback just after the US Team competed amazingly. 

5. Al Fong claims that his gymnasts will make the Olympic Team

(Property of GAGE Gymnastics)

And just when I started to think Al Fong was mellowing out… In an interview after Championships, Gymnastike asked him how he thought his gymnasts would fit into the picture of 2012. A NORMAL coach might said, “We’re gearing up for 2012 and I’m hoping that my gymnasts can do well next year.” But Al Fong is no normal coach. He said: “Two of my athletes are Olympic Eligible, and we intent to make the Olympic Team.” That’s just something you don’t say in the USA. John Geddert hasn’t said it, so Al Fong who has two good (but not great) Juniors should probably keep his mouth shut.

4. Announcer calls Aja-Monet Sims “Hallie Mossett” at Classics

(Property of Gym-Style)

This moment was incredibly awkward because everybody KNEW how awkward it was at the time. As Aja-Monet Sims prepared to salute the judges on uneven bars, (she has a really great Weiler-Comaneci combo, by the way) the announcer called Aja Monet Sims, Hallie Mossett. Aja looked awkwardly at the judges in a “Am I supposed to be here?” way, and then the judges looked back realizing how awkward the mistake was. (These were 2/3 African American Girls in the Senior Division.) The judges waited for a second before giving her the green flag, but the announcer never corrected himself.

3. Chinese wear the 2012 Champion Shirts at Worlds

(Property of Brigid McCarthy, The Couch Gymnast)

(Photo Property of SI)

2. NBC’s coverage of Bross’s injury (@Tsukthepain)

As if severe injuries aren’t traumatic enough for everyone involved, after Bross dislocated her kneecap, unsure of what to do, NBC played nearly 3 minutes of reaction shots. From Nastia covering her face, Chellsie shaking her head and Carly Patterson saying, “It hurts me”, this was possibly the most uncomfortable 3 minutes of television I’ve ever seen. Maybe this raw coverage of Bross crying will help wake us up to the dangers of the sport? It was still awkward and uncomfortable.

1. Komova thinks that she won, Mom freaks
I loved the 2011 Worlds AA Competition. It’s been a while since we saw such a close competition where we knew it could go either way. However, if the whole .033 difference was awkward enough, Komova was a REALLY sore loser about it. There are cultural differences, but in my opinion, no Silver medal winner was this unsportsmanlike since Khorkina in 2004. I understand that being 16 is hard, and that missing gold by only .033 is even harder. But, Mama Komova didn’t have to call foul with the judges. The situation seemed really awkward for everybody! 

You all gave me great ideas! Thank you! Keep sharing your story ideas in the future! 

Happy Birthday Nastia!

Today is Nastia's 22nd Birthday. Let's look at some Nastia fashion moments in her honor.

 The Bad: 

Nastia in some sketchy heels! 

Nastia in some Daisy Dukes... 

Nastia in the least Nastia like outfit I've ever seen...

Nastia holding a... bra? Or, Something? Also, she's got a bump-it. 

The Good: 

Nastia in a pretty Max Azaria Dress! 

Nastia rockin' it at the ESPYs.

Nastia just looking fierce as hell! 

Sunday Funday - "Totally Looks Like"

In honor of the most fun, and best day of the weekend (Okay... maybe not...), I wanted to start a blog tradition of adding aspects of humor having to do with gymnastics each week. This week I've assembled and created some Totally Looks Like Memes having to do with gymnastics. 

 (^Created by Lindsay K)

 (^Created by Chelsea-N-Grant)

(^Created by lincolnwashere)

Do you have an idea for a gymnastics "Totally Looks Like"? Leave it in the comments section and you may see it here in the future!