Women's Team Finals - American Success

They did it! The USA Women's gymnastics team earned the gold medal today by over five points. Twelve nearly flawless performances clinched the gold for the exceptionally young team including literally the most beautiful vault I've ever seen. To watch the women hit routine after routine was incredibly satisfying. The Fierce Five were as fierce as ever.

Why is the US Succeeding? I personally like to think that it's our "melting pot" and "best of both worlds" structures that provide everything and the kitchen sink to the American athletes. The Women's US Olympic Gymnastics Team is coached by individuals from each of the top 4 gymnastics nations, if you consider the old USSR & Russia one and the same. Rather than having a distinct weakness like some other teams, the varied coaching styles present different strengths amongst Americans. For instance, Aly Raisman is coached by Romanian Mihai Brestyan seemed to inherit the nation's weakness on bars but their strengths on beam and floor. Kyla Ross, Gabby Douglas and US Alternate Anna Li have all been nurtured by Chinese Coaches and seem to prevail on bars. Of course, many coaches are present within a young gymnast's career and other factors influence success besides coaching, but I thought it was worth noting that the US relies on a melting pot environment to hone a strong team.

I do think that we all need to applaud Marta Karolyi. For all the slack that we as fans give Marta, we should realize that she does have some earthly idea what she's doing. The USA's never earned lower than silver at the Olympics under her direction and today they not only earned the gold, but it was by a fairly hefty margin. At the end of the day, Marta has the majority of the control over who makes the team and on which events they compete.

But of course, the real indisputable reason for the win was the USA's performances. When competing that level of difficulty that impressively, they were nearly uncatchable. The USA stayed solid while competing some of the most difficult routines in the world. Ultimately, THAT'S why they won. I've already heard many people saying, "Well, if the Russians would have hit, they'd have the gold." Not only is that irrelevant, it's also untrue. I did a little experiment wondering if Russia had the opportunity to take the higher scores between prelims and finals for each routine, if they could beat the USA's performances today. The numbers that are crossed out are Team Finals results replaced by qualifying scores.

Vault-

Komova- 15.833

Mustafina- 15.225

Paseka - 15.3  15.533

Bars- 

Grishina - 14.7 

Komova - 15.766  15.833

Mustafina - 15.7

Beam- 

Komova - 15.033  15.266

Mustafina - 14.533  14.7

Afan - 14.833 15.066

Floor - 

Grishina - 12.466 14.066

Mustafina - 14.8

Afan - 14.333  14.833

Russian Olympic High Score Total : 181.555

USA's Actual Team Total : 183.596

The bottom line is, it doesn't matter. The USA simply out performed Russia in both Prelims and Finals. Grishina & Afan's Floor Mistakes, Paseka's step on vault, as well as Komova and Mustafina's beam struggles were all frankly irrelevant. It wouldn't have mattered. It was the USA's competition to lose and they didn't budge. 

It was an exciting event and until Grishina's floor mishaps, I wondered if the USA would falter and Russia would prevail. The pressure was on the USA's shoulders and they rose to the occasion.  

Pictures all property of ESPN.

My thoughts on USA's Podium Training...

Okay, so I just watched podium training, as I was at work while it was airing live. (Don't worry! I'll be able to watch everything else live!) Here are my thoughts on the American performances, as those were the only ones that I, like most of you, were able to see.

NBC Sports

Vault: 
-This whole thing was fierce. If the USA wins, this will be why. They are head and shoulders above everyone on this event. I mean, in my opinion, Paseka was put on the Russian team for an Amanar about as strong as our WEAKEST vaulter, Kyla.
-I was pleased to see that McKayla is vaulting like herself, which I anticipated. Even though she is dealing with a minor foot injury.
-I wish that there were a reason for Kyla to compete her vault that DIDN'T involve anyone else getting kicked off the lineup due to injury/whatever. That DTY is gorgeous and often stuck.

Uneven Bars: 
-NBC really bugged me with their coverage here. I suppose I should be grateful for anything but I do NOT want to see people chalking up over a Dougie release EVER.
-I honestly worry about Jo struggling on bars in TF and hitting at other points. Call me crazy, but her whole situation reminds me of Carly Patterson.
-I love how different Kyla and Gabby are on this event, and yet they're both so strong!
-To those of you freaking out, the whole point of this training is to get used to the equipment. It's not surprising that they fell some.

Beam: 
-I LOVED how quickly the women worked on this event. The second one girl was of, the next was on.
-Kyla Ross should do a press to handstand mount on beam. It could be really pretty.
-Super proud of Kyla & Gabby for not missing a fucking beat when they turned the lights off.
-WAIT! Somone's floor music is the song from the P&G mom commercial! Or is that just what they play in the background?

Floor: 
-The thought that Kyla will likely go up on FX in prelims makes me die a little bit inside. She seems like a really sweet girl, but that floor... ugh.
-Gabby's floor seemed more appropriate for the venue than I expected. Maybe it's the hot pink podium?
-Jordyn seemed less... connected than usual. Maybe it's nerves? Maybe it's because there's no crowd.
-Weird front tuck instead of front layout from Aly. I wonder if she was worried about getting it around or if that's the new plan?

Random Thoughts: 

NBC Sports

-I have to be honest, I didn't dislike the leotard, but it reminded me of a sparkly pink pot leaf.
-The pink podium looks great on camera, but does indeed clash with the Gymnova mats.
-It's really pissing me off that people feel the need to pit Jordyn & Gabby against each other saying things like "they haven't interacted at all." Jordyn doesn't interact with people on the podium really. That's just not how she rolls. It's bad enough for 12 year old girls to make up vicious rivalries, it's worse when members of the associated press do it.
-Pink is a good color on Marta.

You can watch a replay of podium training here : http://www.nbcolympics.com/video/gymnastics/gymnastics-podium-training-u-s-women.html

The 2012 US Olympic Gymnastics team is...

"It's not just like a puppy that you want for Christmas, it's the Olympics." - McKayla Maroney.

Since 2009, many have been calling Ms. Jordyn Wieber of Dewitt, Michigan a "lock" for these Olympic games. While I never went that far, I was not even a little bit surprised to see her named. . Jordyn will likely go up on all four events, arguably contributing most on vault and floor. Not only will she contribute significantly, but she'll also work it in the All Around final, where she won the gold at last year's World Championship. Wieber trains at Geddert's Twistars in Lansing, MI.

Gabby Douglas who lives in Des Moines, Iowa, won tonight's Trials, securing her spot on the 5 person squad. After tonight's performance, Gabby will likely be put up on vault, bars and possibly floor. She, like Jordyn, will also likely end up in the All Around final and if she qualifies, the Uneven Bars finals. Gabby is coached by Liang Chow, who coached 2008 Olympian Shawn Johnson.

Aly Raisman, who's arguably been the consistent performer on the US team since she turned Senior in 2010 was also unsurprisingly named to the US Team. Aly won a bronze medal on floor at last year's World Championships. The US will certainly be used on Beam and Floor, and perhaps vault, depending on how she performs in training leading up to the games. Aly is coached by 2008 Olympian Alicia Sacramone's coach, Mihai Brestyan.

The newcomer to the team, Kyla Ross, is a first year senior with something to prove. At only 15 years old, Kyla is one of the USA's strongest bar workers and will most likely contribute to the team on beam. Kyla's only weakness is her lack of international experience in comparison to the other girls on the team, although she hasn't let it stop her before. Kyla trains at Gym-Max in Costa Mesa, CA.

The fifth member on the team (which was the biggest one up for grabs this evening), went to McKayla Maroney, who is the reigning world vault champion. She'll likely only go up on Vault (and compete in the Vault final), although her floor routine could help the USA. McKayla trains at All Olympia Gymnastics Academy in Los Angeles, CA.

Alternates are Elizabeth Price, Sarah Finnegan and Anna Li.

Trials Podium Training Thoughts...

Michael O'Leary 

Thoughts overall: 
-No major injuries. *Knock on wood*. This has become a "who's the best of the best" instead of who can survive the bullshit.
-I love that girls are all in National Team Leos.
-The USA is deeeeeeeeep. I'm so glad.

On individual gymnasts: (in no particular order whatsoever.)

Elizabeth Price has given me second thoughts on calling all Parkettes "skill chuckers". That Amanar is fierce as is the Double Double. She'll be a great alternate.

The videos of Sarah Finnegan weren't particularly impressive to me, but maybe that's because I've watched her routines so many times. I'm interested to see how she'll compete. She's another potentially great alternate.

Sabrina Vega's gymnastics is just so pretty. I wish we could give her Aly Raisman's consistency & difficulty.

I can't get over Rebecca Bross's feet. Still. I love her natural swing though. She did land her Patterson in training, but I'm not holding my breath for a clean dismount in competition. I STILL think that it's too much of a risk for a Team Final.

Gabrielle Douglas looks fierce as ever, but her ankle looks super taped. Was it that taped at Nationals? The slowmo Amanar is not to be missed.

Nastia looks about 0% more ready than she did at Nationals podium training. If it's the Olympic Trials and you can't do a full bar routine with out an enormous amount of spotting, I'm doubting you. (The ring leap was better, though.)

McKayla is impressing me. People were worried that she wouldn't compete at Trials but she looks as good as she did at Nationals, if not better.

Anna Li's bars are fantastic, but I can't imagine Marta taking someone who literally can only go up on one event, no matter what.

Kyla's Amanar is back and looks decent. I wonder if she'll compete it and if she does if she can compete it consistently. Bars & Beam are as solid as usual. I only put her floor on for 4 seconds to see if she had changed music. ... She hadn't.

Aly Raisman is proving herself as more and more of a lock. Honey child does not fall. You can't hate that.

USA Gymnastics

Jordyn Wieber might as well not even compete. She'll be in London unless her arm falls off... and even then she could probably pull off beam. There's honestly not much to say about her at this point. She's solid, but I'm honestly kind of bored, in a Pattersonian way.

Brenna Dowell looks sad throughout. I'm waiting for her to call the news and do an Ivana Hong like news story. You remember she has a broken hand, right? She looks like she's adding a wolf jump after her front double pike though. So that's fun.

Bridget Sloan is being spotted quite a bit on bars, and USAG didn't post a full routine from her. But then again, it was similar in at Nationals, and she performed satisfactorily there.

USAG only posted Alicia Sacramone's beam which looked clean, but I'm more interested in her Vault.  I can't see a FTY as her second vault being a strong enough case for her.

Kennedy Baker wasn't in podium training today, so that was kind of a bummer. She arrived in San Jose late Tuesday evening.

Aly Raisman & McKayla Maroney 2012 UB Olympic Champions?!

In the past 24 hours, I've read the following things from gymnastics fans or bloggers: 
-"Aly is great on bars and beam!"
-"[Kyla's] strongest events : Floor and Vault."
-"Maroney should be great on bars."
-A tweeter putting Nastia in her Olympic floor lineup

I'm starting to get frustrated, friends. So, instead of screaming and banging my head against the wall, I've decided I'll attempt to help clear up whatever confusion is going on.

Some of the following post is my opinion, but let's talk facts for a second. Aly is NOT great on bars, Kyla is NOT strongest on floor and Maroney will NOT be great on bars. Those are just facts! The US is looking for the 3 highest scorers on each event. I'm sharing with you the highest scores on each event for each Trials qualifiers, although that doesn't take consistency into account.

VAULT- 
To be honest, competing on vault for the US in team finals isn't much of an option unless you've got an Amanar or a Rudi.

Girls whose vaults are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Maroney, Wieber & Raisman.

Girls whose vaults MAY be team finals worthy: Douglas, Price, Ross & Sacramone.

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers.
1. Maroney - 16.15  (Nationals Day 1)
2T. Wieber - 16.1 (American Cup)
2T. Raisman - 16.1 (American Cup)
4. Douglas - 15.866 (American Cup)
5. Price - 15.8 (Nationals Day 1)
6. Ross - 15.55 (Jesolo)
7. Sacramone - 15.5 (Nationals Day 2)
8. Finnegan - 15.0 (Nationals Day 1)
9. Baker - 14.8 (Nationals Day 2)
10. Dowell - 14.7 (Nationals Day 2)
11. Vega - 14.5 (Nationals Day 2)
12. Sloan - 14.15 (Nationals Day 2)
Liukin, Li, Bross no longer compete Vault.

BARS- 
Bars is trickier, because fewer of the team "locks" are super strong on bars.


Girls whose bars are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Dougals, Li, Ross, Bross & Sloan.

Girls whose bars MAY be team finals worthy: Wieber, Price & Liukin (if Nastia can show what people are expecting her to). 

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers. 

1. Douglas - 15.85 (Nationals Day 2)
2. Li - 15.55 (Nationals Day 2)
3. Ross - 15.5 (Nationals Day 1)
4. Bross - 15.3 (US Classic)
5. Sloan - 15.1(Nationals Day 1)
6. Wieber - 15.05 (Nationals Day 1)
7. Price - 14.95 (Nationals Day 1)
8. Baker - 14.85 (Nationals Day 1)
9. Dowell - 14.6 (Jesolo)
10. Raisman - 14.45 (Jesolo)
11. Vega - 14.4 (Nationals Day 2)
12. Finnegan - 14.15 (Jesolo)
13. Maroney - 13.95 (Jesolo)
14. Liukin - 13.65 (Nationals Day 2)
Sacramone does not compete this event.

BEAM 
The US is looking stronger and stronger on beam and should have plenty of coverage on that event, regardless of who is on the team.

Girls whose beam sets are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Ross, Raisman & Finnegan.

Girls whose beam sets MAY be team finals worthy: Wieber (her high is MUCH higher than her average), Sacramone, Liukin.

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers. 

1. Wieber -  15.7 (Pac Rim AA)

2. Ross - 15.5 (Jesolo)

3. Raisman - 15.45 (Nationals Day 2) 

4. Finnegan - 15.35 (Nationals Day 1) 

5. Sacramone - 15.2 (Nationals Day 1) 

6T. Liukin - 15.1 (Nationals Day 1)

6T. Douglas - 15.1 (American Cup)

8. Maroney - 14.55 (Nationals Day 1)

9. Vega - 14.4 (Nationals Day 2) 

10. Baker - 14.3 (US Classic) 

11. Price - 14.3 (Nationals Day 1) 

12. Bross - 14.15 (Jesolo) 

13. Li - 13.9 (US Classic) 

14. Dowell - 13.9 (Nationals Day 2) 

15. Sloan - 13.85 (Nationals Day 2)

FLOOR

Girls whose floor routines are CERTAINLY team finals worthy: Raisman, Douglas, Wieber & Finnegan.

Girls whose floor routines MAY be team finals worthy: Vega & Price. 

Below is a list of the HIGHEST scores posted in 2012 by Trials Qualifiers. 

1. Raisman - 15.8 (Nationals Day 2)
2. Douglas - 15.3 (Nationals Day 2)
3. Wieber - 15.25 (Nationals Day 1)
4. Finnegan - 15.2 (US Classic)
5. Vega - 14.85 (US Classic)
6. Price -14.8 (Nationals Day 2)
7T. Ross - 14.6 (Nationals Day 2)
7T. Maroney - 14.6 (Nationals Day 1)
9. Baker - 14.4 (Nationals Day 1)
10. Dowell - 14.35 (Nationals Day 2)
11. Sloan - 13.9 (Nationals Day 2)
Li, Bross & Liukin do NOT compete Floor anymore.

So dearest fellow fans, go back and look what you've written and then look at the facts. Are you making sense? 

"My best events are vault and bars and beam and floor": The Kyla Ross Conundrum

Once upon a time, there was a wonderful Junior gymnast. Although she consistently placed well in the All Around, she struggled on bars and would sometimes place in the 20s on that event at national competitions. Then the gymnast grew some, trained a lot and suddenly, she became really good on bars. So good, that she started winning international medals. The gymnast's name was Rebecca Bross.

Rebecca Bross is a perfect example of the rule that you can change specialties. The girl who placed 15th amongst American Jrs in 2006 on an event could be named 3rd best in the world on that same event just 3 years later. Just because you were once weak on an event doesn't mean that it can't be your strongest event several years later.

While Rebecca Bross was winning that medal in London 3 years ago, an up and coming junior was arising in the spotlight. Kyla Ross won several competitions that year, equipped with her green bow and pack of Gym-Max teammates. At the time, Kyla was working with a 4.9 UB SV, and only tied for 12th on bars, despite winning Vault and Beam and earning 3rd on floor. But as it's so often said: "That was then, and this is now."


Kyla is a good bar worker now. You can't argue with that. She's won the uneven bars gold 2011 Classics and 2012 Jesolo, and the Silver at 2011 & 2012 Championships, 2012 Classics, 2012 Pac Rims, 2011 Jesolo and 2010 Pac Rims. Please don't tell me that all of those titles don't qualify someone to compete on Uneven Bars in a team final setting.

Furthermore, if you've pinned her as a bar specialist, don't be confused thinking that she can't compete on beam and that you need a beam worker on the team to go up instead of her. She's won as many titles there as she has on bars, and more of them are gold.

So you've got Kyla in your bars and beam lineup and you want to put her on floor? Don't! She's only got a 5.5 Start Value there. Her 5.5 is the lowest of any girl who will be competing floor at Trials! Once having an Amanar doesn't make someone a good floor worker!

I don't know what I think about Kyla's vault, but I certainly wouldn't call her a major team asset on vault. It seems that she's been struggling with the Amanar, but in an emergency, she could certainly pull out a fabulous double.

I'm not sure what the issue is or why fans can't get it straight, but even Kyla seems confused on where she fits in. When talking to a journalist she stated that her best events are "Vault and Bars and Beam and Floor." All in all, we need to realize that things can change within an athletes skill set. This isn't the same Kyla that we met in 2009.

Let's talk about ex(ecution), baby.

USA Gymnastics

Quick! Who do you think are the girls with the highest execution in the USA? I assumed that the "Chosen 4" would rank highly and then I thought that with only execution counting that Sarah Finnegan and Sabrina Vega would squeak into the top 5 or so. In fact, I thought that Sarah Finnegan would become a virtual lock for the team disregarding difficulty. I thought she had a good chance to place higher than Douglas. Well, I was wrong.

The Top 12 in execution only over the 2 days of competition were: (parentheses indicate place w/ D & E scores counting)

USA Gymnastics

1. Kyla Ross (4th)
2. Jordyn Wieber (1st)
3. Gabby Douglas (2nd)
4. Aly Raisman (3rd)
5. Elizabeth Price (5th)
6. McKayla Maroney (N/A)*
7. Sarah Finnegan (6th)
8. Sabrina Vega (7th Tie)
9. Brenna Dowell (9th)
10. Kennedy Baker (7th Tie)
11T. Bridget Sloan (10th)
11T.  Abigail Milliet (11th)

*I multiplied Maroney's day 1 E scores by 2 so we could see where she fits.

Places 13-18 fall in the same order that they did in competition.

Frankly, I was surprised. I started to question myself and other gymnastics fans. We love Sabrina Vega, we love Sarah Finnegan, We Well, I, love Kennedy Baker. We say that it's because they have clean gymnastics, but we're lying to ourselves. It's because they have pretty gymnastics. There's nothing wrong with liking gymnastics because it's pretty, we just need to be honest with ourselves about what's going on. It's worth mentioning that these girls fell, but even if they hadn't they wouldn't have been the leaders in execution. It's a myth that these girls would be the strongest if their difficulties were higher, as they're in the same positions or even lower. Pretty doesn't necessarily equal well executed, as much as sometimes I wish it did.

Inside Gymnastics

Other surprises included Raisman placing 12th amongst vaulters. (Maroney, not surprisingly, placed 1st), Jordyn Wieber placing higher than Anna Li on bars and Gabby placing 3rd on floor. You may not like her music, but you can't argue that she performs it well.

So difficulty aside, who would I name to my team? (Execution based ranks are in parentheses)

VT: Wieber (3), Ross (2), Maroney (1)
UB: Wieber (3), Ross (2), Douglas (1)
BB: Wieber (4), Raisman (3), Ross (1)
FX: Douglas (3), Raisman (2), Wieber (1)
Alt: Price, Sacramone, Finnegan

Who takes the 5th Spot? (Based on season averages)

It's arguable, but I personally believe that 4 of the American gymnasts have a 75% or greater shot of making the team. The three semi locks are Jordyn Wieber, Aly Raisman and Gabby Douglas. I personally believe that Kyla Ross will take the fourth spot. So that leaves the every popular question: Who takes the fifth spot?

To answer that question, I found the season averages on each event from everyone headed to Trials. To be fair, season averages may not be the best judge of who will perform the best, but I figured it would be a decent baseline. Falls ARE included in the average, so this is not an average of only hit routines. They're rounded to the hundredth's place.

The cool thing about this 4 person team is that if need be, these 4 girls could fill the 3 up, 3 count quota on each event. Here's how I'd do it.

VT : Wieber (15.85), Raisman (15.58), Douglas (15.24)
UB : Douglas (15.55), Ross (15.28), Wieber (14.85)
BB :  Ross (15.1), Raisman (15.03), Wieber (14.85)
FX : Raisman (15.34), Wieber (15.08), Douglas (14.97)

So to figure out which gymnast would fill the fifth spot, I figured out who would add the largest advantage by adding their routines instead of the lowest scoring routine(s) in the lineup above.

To my surprise, the girl who would add the largest advantage was McKayla Maroney who would increase the team average .84 if she vaulted instead of Douglas. Marta's openly said that she doesn't want to take a girl who can only help on one event, but McKayla's average is by far the most helpful to team USA.

Second is Alicia Sacramone whose average is higher than both Douglas on Vault and surprisingly, Jordyn Wieber on beam. (Jordyn's Pac Rim EF fall IS factored into this average though.) Her advantage is .53.

Elizabeth Price's was the third most helpful with her vault average adding .45 to the team total.

I was surprised that my most recent pick for #5, Sarah Finnegan's beam routine was the only helpful one (w/ a .21 advantage) and that her floor average wasn't higher than Raisman's, Douglas's or Wieber's.  Her individual floor scores have been higher than some of Gabby's though.

Bridget Sloan, Anna Li and Rebecca Bross each could help the team solely on bars, but because they've each had their share of mistakes their advantages each only average out to less than .2.

Kennedy, Sabrina, Nastia and Brenna don't have higher averages on any event than the already chosen four.

Obviously, season averages are not the end all be all of a selection process, but they do take into account both consistency and scoring potential. Who knows, Nastia, Becca or Anna could blow all of these girls out of the water at Trials, or perhaps one of my "Chosen Four" could seem unprepared for Olympic aspirations. *Knock on wood*. But, I thought it was a start to see who will take what I view as the last spot on the team.

**Pictures are all property of the USOC